[opinion] - hmmm…VW/Audi/Porsche may be in trouble…

[bn8959]

Sadly I recon it’s the media and incorrect perceptions.
I’ve spoken to a fair few with ridiculous idea around BEV - including my mother, who said ‘I must be such a pain not being able to fill it up with fuel’ and ‘I bet it goes flat before the end of the lane’! Maddening!

 

[whitex]

Sadly I recon it’s the media and incorrect perceptions.
I’ve spoken to a fair few with ridiculous idea around BEV - including my mother, who said ‘I must be such a pain not being able to fill it up with fuel’ and ‘I bet it goes flat before the end of the lane’! Maddening!

Took me a decade to convince my parents. Two years after finally caving, they are 100% sold on their Model Y. They even do long distance trips in it now. Sadly, their friends are still on the ICE bandwagon, one relative is sincerely afraid to be in an EV due to a fear of it spontaneously combusting. Their friends' kids even drive EVs, but it will not convince the parents. However, none of them are performance car, or Porsche brand enthusiasts. So while I see why a bunch of retirees are wanting to stick with ICE (finish their stay on Earth with what they've know their whole life), anyone with a garage who values performance in a small SUV should be begging for Macan EV instead of Macan ICE. Then again, maybe it's Porsche's own fault for limiting the supply. When I test drove the Macan EV (I was servicing my Taycan, the sales guy I know asked if I wanted to check out the Macan EV Turbo), I said I liked it, he told me unfortunately the one I drove was not for sale and they had no allocations either. I wasn't in the market for one, but if I was, I would have just moved on to another brand.

Could it be that Porsche is screwing their own EV demand by pretending Macan EV's are like 911 GT3 RS - only for very loyal customers? Maybe that is where they completely misunderstood their target market.

 

[tigerbalm]

According to them, 911 owners would leave their cars for repair and ask for new brakes, tires, and even some updates. They knew their cars very well and paid their bills without complaints. Cayenne drivers would not know that their tires were wearing out and would try to argue they were still fine to dodge the expense of replacing them.

I enjoyed that bit of snark!

 

[tigerbalm]

I am a little puzzled why someone would pick an ICE Macan over EV.

Currently this is a non European only dilemma; as the petrol Macan is no longer available to purchase in the European Union.

Edit: just realised petrol version is still available in UK.

 

[Wivenhoe]

In the UK the take up of personally owned EV’s is very low. Most of the EV sales are for company car drivers due to the significantly lower personal tax.

There are no incentives to buy an EV - even the subsidy of home chargers has been removed for home owners. EV’s are £’000 more expensive and the used EV market is about to be flooded by ex lease / company cars hurting residuals even more. The manufacturers are taking these cars back with residuals far below the PCP / leases anticipated so real pain meaning they can’t discount new EV’s to make them competitive. Chinese manufacturers weren’t here then so not affected.

Private buyers see the very negative media coverage of the lack of very expensive charging infrastructure and horrendous depreciation (I lost £ 33k in 18 months on my Lexus RZ and we all know about the Taycan values) and just don’t want to take the risk and true costs of owning an EV.

It looks like PHEV’s are taking the sales - very tax efficient, some can do up to 50 miles on electric and with a 2l petrol engine are as fast as a V6. I had 4 before my Porsche EV.

As usual, there is no joined up thinking by government - banning ICE cars in 5 years but removing EV incentives, removing expensive road tax dispensation, levying 20% VAT on public charging etc. It costs more per mile to use a public charger than filling up a ICE.

That‘s why I think buyers are buying ICE / PHEV’s rather than EV’s here in the UK.

 

[f1eng]

Took me a decade to convince my parents. Two years after finally caving, they are 100% sold on their Model Y. They even do long distance trips in it now. Sadly, their friends are still on the ICE bandwagon, one relative is sincerely afraid to be in an EV due to a fear of it spontaneously combusting. Their friends' kids even drive EVs, but it will not convince the parents. However, none of them are performance car, or Porsche brand enthusiasts. So while I see why a bunch of retirees are wanting to stick with ICE (finish their stay on Earth with what they've know their whole life), anyone with a garage who values performance in a small SUV should be begging for Macan EV instead of Macan ICE. Then again, maybe it's Porsche's own fault for limiting the supply. When I test drove the Macan EV (I was servicing my Taycan, the sales guy I know asked if I wanted to check out the Macan EV Turbo), I said I liked it, he told me unfortunately the one I drove was not for sale and they had no allocations either. I wasn't in the market for one, but if I was, I would have just moved on to another brand.

Could it be that Porsche is screwing their own EV demand by pretending Macan EV's are like 911 GT3 RS - only for very loyal customers? Maybe that is where they completely misunderstood their target market.

Propaganda works.
The oil industry makes a billion dollars a day so can easily fund and help along the misinformation if it is to their financial benefit.

Brexit relied on people believing propaganda rather than expert advice and the evidence post Brexit is that the experts were right and the politicians were lying to feather their own nests - who'd have thought?

On top of that here in the UK there has been a tax loophole for company car drivers which, as they always do, distorted the market and resulted in an oversupply of used EVs reinforcing the general view that they are too expensive and depreciate more.

Almost everybody I know can't believe I prefer EVs after a lifetime in Formula 1 racing - mind you I DO prefer IC engines for racing because of the weight of batteries.

 

[ct14garage]

yeah Porsche has got problems, and driving dynamics - well most likely the gap has been closed…

Anyone who dares compare Porsche to... whaaat? Lucid?......
That’s not a car enthusiast—that’s a woke tech cultist with a driver’s license. Enough said.

 

[Fish Fingers]

In the UK the take up of personally owned EV’s is very low. Most of the EV sales are for company car drivers due to the significantly lower personal tax.

There are no incentives to buy an EV - even the subsidy of home chargers has been removed for home owners. EV’s are £’000 more expensive and the used EV market is about to be flooded by ex lease / company cars hurting residuals even more. The manufacturers are taking these cars back with residuals far below the PCP / leases anticipated so real pain meaning they can’t discount new EV’s to make them competitive. Chinese manufacturers weren’t here then so not affected.

Private buyers see the very negative media coverage of the lack of very expensive charging infrastructure and horrendous depreciation (I lost £ 33k in 18 months on my Lexus RZ and we all know about the Taycan values) and just don’t want to take the risk and true costs of owning an EV.

It looks like PHEV’s are taking the sales - very tax efficient, some can do up to 50 miles on electric and with a 2l petrol engine are as fast as a V6. I had 4 before my Porsche EV.

As usual, there is no joined up thinking by government - banning ICE cars in 5 years but removing EV incentives, removing expensive road tax dispensation, levying 20% VAT on public charging etc. It costs more per mile to use a public charger than filling up a ICE.

That‘s why I think buyers are buying ICE / PHEV’s rather than EV’s here in the UK.

I think its just starting to change with more private buyers now seeming to be entering the market at the lower end.

I see quite a few pensioners proudly driving round in one of those new MG EVs (who would probably go nowhere near a Chinese brand ?).
The sort who may have driven a Honda Jazz previously, now proud of their green stripe on the number plate.

And I just don't understand why private buyers aren't snapping up all the used EV bargains if they can charge at home or work.

Completely agree that the (successive) Govt have no idea what they are doing. They want everyone off ICE cars.....but then offer no private buyer incentives for EVs (in fact, to the contrary, we are all now starting to pay road tax on them! ?‍?)

 

[D00notD00d]

Anyone here have any MHEV/PHEV hybrid range experience?
Currently on a road trip in the US, in a Grand Cherokee Plug in. Most of the hire SUVs here seem to be PHEVs. Although it had zero charge when picked up, in the first 150 miles, the Dashboard alleges that 43 of the first 150 miles were on Hybrid, from Braking and Coasting Regen. Those miles were at slow non interstate speeds, in the Yellowstone & Tetons parks, and without the savage max regeneration turned on.
That proportion of electric miles seems unbelievable. Anyone have any Panamera or Cayenne hybrid range experience?

 

[daveo4EV]

Anyone here have any MHEV/PHEV hybrid range experience?
Currently on a road trip in the US, in a Grand Cherokee Plug in. Most of the hire SUVs here seem to be PHEVs. Although it had zero charge when picked up, in the first 150 miles, the Dashboard alleges that 43 of the first 150 miles were on Hybrid, from Braking and Coasting Regen. Those miles were at slow non interstate speeds, in the Yellowstone & Tetons parks, and without the savage max regeneration turned on.
That proportion of electric miles seems unbelievable. Anyone have any Panamera or Cayenne hybrid range experience?

going to suggest this is off topic for the thread - but it'a great topic - my answer is linked below - let's continue sharing over in the new thread…

https://www.taycanforum.com/forum/threads/hybrid-experience.27171/

we should continue sharing/chatting over in the new thread.

@Administrator if you feel like a project - maybe move this single post to the new thread so that @D00notD00d gets the thread creation credit

 

[Tooney]

Synthetic Fuel: The Combustion Silver Bullet, Or ... ?
Aiming to replace petroleum-based gasoline in internal combustion (ICE) cars, synthetic fuel is nearly carbon-neutral, and best of all, it's not science fiction. For example, Porsche has been researching synthetic gasoline, even using it in its one-make racing series and demonstrating its abilities in a 718 Cayman GT4 RS.
. . .
Porsche, through its partnership with HIF, uses a process called direct air capture (DAC) to snatch carbon molecules from the atmosphere, which are then used to create more eFuel.
. . .
One of its greatest advantages is that it's compatible with any vehicle that runs on gasoline, a trait Porsche showed off by fueling a G-body 911 with the stuff. That means that folks who are unable or unwilling to buy a brand-new electric or hydrogen-powered vehicle can still take advantage of environmentally friendly technology in their classic cars.
. . .
But speaking of scale, synthetic fuel's biggest disadvantage, for now at least, is that demand far outstrips supply. Porsche estimates that it will be able to produce 550 million liters of eFuel in 2026, which sounds like a lot until you learn that global gasoline demand exceeded 1.5 trillion liters in 2024. If Mazda, Honda, Hyundai, and other manufacturers researching eFuels could match Porsche's output, that would still only represent a measly one-thousandth of the world's gasoline use.

Synthetic gasoline is also more expensive than regular petroleum-based fuel. Porsche CEO Oliver Blume suggests that if produced on an industrial scale, its eGas would cost around $7.57 a gallon – quite a bit more than average gas prices in the US. Unless the price of organic gas becomes a lot more expensive, it could be a tough sell for many consumers. That said, adjusted for inflation, Americans were paying more than $6 a gallon in 2008, and internal combustion advocates in Europe consistently pay $8-10 per gallon, so the price of synthetic fuels could someday reach parity.

Porsche: efuels in Detail

 

[Tooney]

Volkswagen to make ‘massive’ investment in US in bid to avoid tariffs

Oliver Blume, who heads the group, said the talks were “constructive” and “fair”, in an interview that suggests the company, whose market capital is £44bn, is not willing to leave tariff negotiations to Brussels alone.

Speaking to Süddeutsche Zeitung, Blume said he had been to Washington himself and had a direct line to the US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, but had agreed to keep details of the talks confidential.

He hoped that plans for substantial investment would help shape Trump’s ultimate decision on the 25% tariffs the US imposed on auto imports in April.
. . .
He said the Volkswagen Group “intends to continue investing in the US” and would build on its partnership with the American electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian with “further, massive investments”.
. . .
In March, the company revealed a 30% year-on-year drop in net profits owing to high production costs and decreased sales in China.

Asked what was the biggest mistake made by German manufacturers, Blume said “we’ve rested on our laurels for too long” and “realised too late that the world is changing extremely rapidly and dynamically”.

The German car industry needed to stop spending “endless time … debating”, and instead needed to “decide and act”, he said.

Sales of Chinese electric vehicles in the EU have more than trebled between 2019 and 2023, according to industry figures, with 10% tariffs imposed by Brussels in 2024 slowing growth.

However, the EU still believes China is not doing enough to create a level playing field and faces fresh concerns that Chinese goods, originally destined for the US, will be diverted to Europe in the long term.

Blume defended the company’s electric vehicle strategy, saying it would be launching VW, Cupra and Skoda EVs for about €25,000, followed by a cheaper entry-evel car tagged the “ID.EVERY1”.

He admitted that job cuts were “painful” but said “something has to happen” if the company “wants to survive long term”.

 

[f1eng]

Synthetic Fuel: The Combustion Silver Bullet, Or ... ?
Aiming to replace petroleum-based gasoline in internal combustion (ICE) cars, synthetic fuel is nearly carbon-neutral, and best of all, it's not science fiction. For example, Porsche has been researching synthetic gasoline, even using it in its one-make racing series and demonstrating its abilities in a 718 Cayman GT4 RS.
. . .
Porsche, through its partnership with HIF, uses a process called direct air capture (DAC) to snatch carbon molecules from the atmosphere, which are then used to create more eFuel.
. . .
One of its greatest advantages is that it's compatible with any vehicle that runs on gasoline, a trait Porsche showed off by fueling a G-body 911 with the stuff. That means that folks who are unable or unwilling to buy a brand-new electric or hydrogen-powered vehicle can still take advantage of environmentally friendly technology in their classic cars.
. . .
But speaking of scale, synthetic fuel's biggest disadvantage, for now at least, is that demand far outstrips supply. Porsche estimates that it will be able to produce 550 million liters of eFuel in 2026, which sounds like a lot until you learn that global gasoline demand exceeded 1.5 trillion liters in 2024. If Mazda, Honda, Hyundai, and other manufacturers researching eFuels could match Porsche's output, that would still only represent a measly one-thousandth of the world's gasoline use.

Synthetic gasoline is also more expensive than regular petroleum-based fuel. Porsche CEO Oliver Blume suggests that if produced on an industrial scale, its eGas would cost around $7.57 a gallon – quite a bit more than average gas prices in the US. Unless the price of organic gas becomes a lot more expensive, it could be a tough sell for many consumers. That said, adjusted for inflation, Americans were paying more than $6 a gallon in 2008, and internal combustion advocates in Europe consistently pay $8-10 per gallon, so the price of synthetic fuels could someday reach parity.

Porsche: efuels in Detail

One of my ex-colleagues who has worked for the last few years for a R&D company making synthetic petrol has just been told he will be made redundant since they can not raise the investment needed to continue.
Whether it is the projected cost which puts investors off or the time scale to viability I don't know.

 

[daveo4EV]

One of my ex-colleagues who has worked for the last few years for a R&D company making synthetic petrol has just been told he will be made redundant since they can not raise the investment needed to continue.
Whether it is the projected cost which puts investors off or the time scale to viability I don't know.

Porsche pursuing efuels is like Blockbuster video pursuing "faster rewind of the tapes" as a business plan to stave off streaming…

even if they are carbon neutral (a claim I don't fully believe) - they still burn like normal fuels which have all sorts of nasty pollution/non-greenhouse gas issues - the toxins from burning fuel (efuel or otherwise) is still pretty nasty healthwise…

I see it as a distraction that that prevents them from putting their full efforts into EV's

 

[f1eng]

even if they are carbon neutral (a claim I don't fully believe) - they still burn like normal fuels which have all sorts of nasty pollution/non-greenhouse gas issues - the toxins from burning fuel (efuel or otherwise) is still pretty nasty healthwise…

Absolutely, much of the pollution is inherent in the IC engine, not the fuel's origin.

It also means the (as yet non-existent) green hydrogen powered vehicles are only really clean using fuel cells producing electricity for an electric motor not burning it. In an IC engine it retains many the problems inherent in IC engines, like damaging their own lubricant, complexity, airflow limited power band and NOx emissions.

So both green hydrogen and green hydrocarbons aren't green any more once used in an IC engine.