[opinion] - hmmm…VW/Audi/Porsche may be in trouble…

[feye]

Do you have any credible source for these numbers? Any details as to what packs those are? I see a potential arbitrage opportunity if I could really get completed automotive packs at those prices.

These are the prices what CATL offers to its customers! These are the costs which BYD has for its EVs. Why do you think a 100kWh EV ist so cheap in China?



It's incredible what is going on in the market! Germany now has applications to plug into the grid over 100x the current battery capacity. That's enough to power over 125 million homes. Germany only has 45 million homes.

The Chinese produce batteries where over 98% of all delivered raw materials go into the shipped battery. Northvolt (T junk managers) couldn't get over 60% and went bankrupt. Just another play to rip off tax payer money!

Do the math: Currently installed in Germany is 1.7GW. Applied for 160GW this year alone. Total need to move the entire grid to renewables is about 500GW now and more later on for all the EVs and other usage.

A single 20 foot container from CATL, LGChem, etc, with grid connection ready battery holds 5MW power. A single large container ship can hold 16000 40 foot containers, or 32000 20 foot containers. That means to install 500GW power in Germany, we only need 3 container ships full of these batterys from China, job done!

 

[whitex]

These are the prices what CATL offers to its customers! These are the costs which BYD has for its EVs. Why do you think a 100kWh EV ist so cheap in China?

Ok, subsidized battery prices for Chinese market. As soon as I want it in the US, much higher price.

A single 20 foot container from CATL, LGChem, etc, with grid connection ready battery holds 5MW power. A single large container ship can hold 16000 40 foot containers, or 32000 20 foot containers.

Can you give an example of a ship which can take on 32000 TEU's? Who operates those?

That means to install 500GW power in Germany, we only need 3 container ships full of these batterys from China, job done!

500GW power at what energy storage (GWh)? How does that compare to annual capacity produced by CATL?

 

[D00notD00d]

Is the quality better now? Last time you said...

The lack of EV enthusiasm is temporary.

1. People are scared of unproven expensive batteries.

This is not an issue anymore. The price is now down to $80/kWh and $60 for LFP and will drop to 20 in the long run. This are ready pack prices, not cell prices! Even a failed battery without warrenty is not an issue anymore.

2. People just don't want to pay insane prices for EVs when ICE is much cheaper.

This is also not an issue anymore, since this year in China the majority of EV models are cheaper than comparable ICE models. Running them is also much cheaper!

What you’ve said seems to be applicable to China but not elsewhere.
China manufacturers and sells more EVs than the rest of the world put together. European and US EV manufacturers have a monopoly on expertise, safe repair and parts supply. The costs you quote are not available outside China.
Current cost of replacing one of the 28/33 Taycan modules is circa £8k. Current cost of replacing the full battery pack circa £40k. The battery itself is just one of many expensive and vulnerable parts.

China has mastered how to make products and infrastructure fast and cheap. So far it hasn’t mastered how to make them desirable and provide the illusion of quality. When that is achieved, only tariffs will get in the way.

 

[daveo4EV]

Consider the Escalade EV arriving at dealers now, or wait a year or two for the Suburban EV.

no carPlay - not my vendor.

 

[d00d]

no carPlay - not my vendor.

That's one of my requirements as well, the Chevy WT version of the platform has that standard.
This company apparently coordinates with the dealer to get the module installed in other GM products;
https://insideevs.com/news/742325/wams-carplay-kit-ev-ultium/

 

[Jhenson29]

no carPlay - not my vendor.

I love CarPlay so much. I travel for work and end up in lots of rentals (e.g. I was in 3 different rentals in the last 2 weeks). Being able to connect my phone and have the same interface every time makes things so much easier, especially as much as I rely on navigation for places I’ve never been to before.

 

[whitex]

no carPlay - not my vendor.

You have owned Teslas.

 

[daveo4EV]

You have owned Teslas.

not since 2020 and I'm not going back to a vehicle with out Carplay…

 

[feye]

Ok, subsidized battery prices for Chinese market. As soon as I want it in the US, much higher price.

Not subsidized, the chinese gov is out of money!

Can you give an example of a ship which can take on 32000 TEU's? Who operates those?

My guess was pretty spot on! Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) received 10 new ships with a capacity of 24,232 TEU in 2023. So it would be 4 ship loads to get 100000 containers...

500GW power at what energy storage (GWh)? How does that compare to annual capacity produced by CATL?

CATL is not the only player in the market. To my knowledge the storage output last for 4h-6h, but they work on extending this.

 

[feye]

What you’ve said seems to be applicable to China but not elsewhere.
China manufacturers and sells more EVs than the rest of the world put together. European and US EV manufacturers have a monopoly on expertise, safe repair and parts supply. The costs you quote are not available outside China.

Of course, but it shows the direction... Let's face it, if a quality EV in China cost 50k and in US 80k, then there is no way anybody can charge 50k for the battery when it costs less than 5k in China.

China has mastered how to make products and infrastructure fast and cheap. So far it hasn’t mastered how to make them desirable and provide the illusion of quality. When that is achieved, only tariffs will get in the way.

CATL battery is quality. They guarantee 0% degradation for the first 5 years for the new LFP packs. The qilin 140kWh LMC I have in my Zeekr 001 has a life long warranty.

VW opened a new research centre for EVs in China. They now do everything in parallel in Germany and in China. The better solution no matter where it comes from goes into cars world wide. Don't write them off because the close a few factories...

 

[whitex]

My guess was pretty spot on! Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) received 10 new ships with a capacity of 24,232 TEU in 2023.

You claimed 32,000 TEU, so not quite "spot on". I was asking because I never heard of a 32,000 TEU ship that you mentioned.

So it would be 4 ship loads to get 100000 containers...

The number of ships required is an irrelevant detail. We could calculate how many ships of Rhodium it would take to pay off Germany's national debt. At $4,575 per oz. and Germany national debt being $2,855,5 billion, that would be ~19,500 tons of Rhodium. A large ships able to carry 200,000 tons, so barely 1/10th of a large ship, or a single much smaller ship filled with Rhodium would pay off the entire national debt of Germany! So what? It doesn't mean paying off Germany's national debt is trivial to do - just a small ship loaded with Rhodium, right?

What matters is the capacity to produce it, and of course landed cost in Germany, but most important for this topic is how much capacity is required for car production, not grid augmentation.

 

[whitex]

CATL battery is quality. They guarantee 0% degradation for the first 5 years for the new LFP packs.

Which car comes with 0% degradation warranty, where the battery will be replaced with a new one if any degradation of the max capacity, however small, is shown?

 

[feye]

The number of ships required is an irrelevant detail.

It is a very relevant detail, because most people are clueless when it comes to battery other then the one in the TV remote.

What matters is the capacity to produce it, and of course landed cost in Germany, but most important for this topic is how much capacity is required for car production, not grid augmentation.

Battery manufacturing is highly automated like solar panel production, if not even more so, because prices fell even faster.

Without batteries for the grid, there is no extended grid capacity. Without extended grid capacity, electricity prices go up, hence less EV sales, means less batteries for EVs...

Sorry, but you got to let go of your fascination with T junk. This company is irrelevant on a global scale. CATL and other Chinese manufacturing already suffer from overcapacity and can easily ramp up production.

Americans just don't get it, how good the Chinese are in manufacturing, particularly now, that the export industry is the last leg the Chinese economy is standing on, and all officials on all levels work on it to extend it.

 

[feye]

Which car comes with 0% degradation warranty, where the battery will be replaced with a new one if any degradation of the max capacity, however small, is shown?

The 5 year LFP guarantee is not a warranty, but a sales pitch for their grid scale battery.

 

[whitex]

The 5 year LFP guarantee is not a warranty, but a sales pitch for their grid scale battery.

Is it backed by anything other, or is this a "forward looking marketing aspirational goal", meaning if your batteries do degrade, all you get is "too bad, but we're working on new batteries which should be better".