"Porsche Sales Are Falling. Here's Why" - Article

[ze_shark]

How did the ICE car registrations do for the same time period?

Petrol -4.7%
Diesel -10.8%
HEV +19.8%
PHEV -7.9%

BEV markershare is falling from 14 to 13.2%.

An inconvenient fact for this thread is that Porsche sales in EU are up 11.5% Oct YTD.

Porsche's problem is first and foremost a China problem, like most others, and after spending the past week there, it is easy to see why. On top of massive category incentives, access to capital, cheap land and R&D tax credit has ignited so much investment that the whole market is in a race to the bottom. Add "incentives" discouraging conspicuous consumption, and a premium brand like Porsche is dealing with huge headwinds there.

Li auto in SUVs, Xpeng, Nio are tough competition, but i do not see these brands making a dent in EU/US premium markets, even without tariffs.

 

[Fish Fingers]

Petrol -4.7%
Diesel -10.8%
HEV +19.8%
PHEV -7.9%

BEV markershare is falling from 14 to 13.2%.

An inconvenient fact for this thread is that Porsche sales in EU are up 11.5% Oct YTD.

Porsche's problem is first and foremost a China problem, like most others, and after spending the past week there, it is easy to see why. On top of massive category incentives, access to capital, cheap land and R&D tax credit has ignited so much investment that the whole market is in a race to the bottom. Add "incentives" discouraging conspicuous consumption, and a premium brand like Porsche is dealing with huge headwinds there.

Li auto in SUVs, Xpeng, Nio are tough competition, but i do not see these brands making a dent in EU/US premium markets, even without tariffs.

China situation not helped with the recent Taycan recall.

18th Nov
Porsche is recalling 15,906 imported Taycan series electric vehicles (EVs) in China as an expansion of a recall announced in May due to the risk of power battery fires.

The automaker is recalling a total of 15,906 Taycan-series EVs manufactured between January 7, 2020, and December 15, 2023, starting November 15, according to an announcement posted on China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) website on Friday.

Some of the vehicles within the recall may have short circuits within the high-voltage power battery module, which in extreme cases may lead to thermal runaway of the battery module, posing a risk of fire, according to the announcement.

 

[whitex]

Petrol -4.7%
Diesel -10.8%
HEV +19.8%
PHEV -7.9%

BEV markershare is falling from 14 to 13.2%.

An inconvenient fact for this thread is that Porsche sales in EU are up 11.5% Oct YTD.

Porsche's problem is first and foremost a China problem, like most others, and after spending the past week there, it is easy to see why. On top of massive category incentives, access to capital, cheap land and R&D tax credit has ignited so much investment that the whole market is in a race to the bottom. Add "incentives" discouraging conspicuous consumption, and a premium brand like Porsche is dealing with huge headwinds there.

Li auto in SUVs, Xpeng, Nio are tough competition, but i do not see these brands making a dent in EU/US premium markets, even without tariffs.

Ok, so Petrol cars and BEV's registrations dropped about the same in EU (petrol dropped 0.1% more. So much for alarmist talking about BEV demand drop being so much more than ICE cars. HEV probably picked up Diesel and PHEV customers.

Porsche selling more in EU might have something to dealers stocking up on discontinued ICE cars. Macan's have an EV replacement, so there is a cap in price the dealers can fetch for an inventory ICE Macan, but 718's currently have no replacement, so the sky is the limit (or perhaps the 911 prices are the limit).

The Chinese brands will make a dent, but of different kind. Rather than directly compete with Porsche, they will raise the bar on what is expected in the car from a technology point of view. People will drive their daily cars and then hate the luxury status symbols - kind of like what happened to Lambos in the 90's, fewer and fewer people wanted to drive without everyday comforts like air conditioning. This will in turn sell more cars from modern luxury brands that will keep up with convenience features (essentially software), so the likes of Mercedes, Lucid, Rivian, Tesla (if they make a luxury car).

 

[ze_shark]

BEV EU share is shrinking while it should be growing sharply to the high teens/low 20s if the segment was crossing the chasm of consumer adoption.
It is not, at least not this year, with a strong coincidence with the rollback of purchase incentives in major markets.

The gain in marketshare is in HEVs.

I do not believe that this mass market trend is relevant to Porsche, but it is noteworthy.

 

[D00notD00d]

From New Automotive, a global analysis of sales in October and the preceding 12 months.
- BEV registrations in China are bigger than the rest of the world put together.
- Petrol and diesel sales are down 15%.
The PDF attached has the full report.

 

[D00notD00d]

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-holiday-update-2024/

What presents would you like from Porsche in the holiday season?

 

[D00notD00d]

The UK ZEV legislation means that 22% of Porsche sales this year must be EVs, or fines will be levied.
Up to October their figure was 20%. Close.
Subject to November figures, this could result in good deals in December for new registrations, demos being registered to meet the target, and price reductions on current demo stock to make way for those. And worse or deferred deals on ICE models.
https://autovista24.autovistagroup....e-struggling-with-the-uk-zev-mandate-targets/

 

[Vim Schrotnock]

This EV situation is not good for Porsche. I just visited my dealer and there were ZERO 2025 Taycans on the floor, and just one 2024. They said they haven't been able to sell a single EV Macan. This is one of the largest dealers in the midwest... ?

 

[whitex]

If you think Porsche, or even the EV market is somehow unique, check out this video which talks about massively falling sales of all kinds of cars and trucks, as well as their massive depreciations. ICE or EV, Porsche, Ford, Chevy, GM, Nissan or Toyota, all are tanking.

 

[Der-Schwabe]

If you think Porsche, or even the EV market is somehow unique, check out this video which talks about massively falling sales of all kinds of cars and trucks, as well as their massive depreciations. ICE or EV, Porsche, Ford, Chevy, GM, Nissan or Toyota, all are tanking.

I can't speak for the US but and I have reported this before in previous months (so to me it appears to be a trend) that in Germany, the Taycan is one of the few BEVs that is bucking the trend for the last 3 months (not the entire year yet), it is either the vehicle registering the most newly registered vehicle in it's segment (~ sales), the upper market/luxury segment, or the vehicle registering as the 2nd most newly registered vehicle (was the case in October) but in November the Taycan is again registering most new vehicles in it's segment, and this segment includes ICEs based on the German KBA figures (= DMV).

489 newly registered vehicles which is a 29% increase over last years figures. The next best vehicle registering just 369 newly registered vehicle (- 31.2% compare to last year) is the Mercedes S-Class (which may include the EQS offering). Amongst the competitors, Lucid stands out with 116 new registrations, there were just 56 new registrations of the Audi Etron GT (- 70.5%) and it comes in behind the A7 (200 new registrations of the A7 (- 16%) & 132 new registrations for A8 (- 40.8%) ICE brethren (the A6 (different segment though (upper middle class vehicles)) saw a 2% increase with 2,930 new registrations (the 5 series dominates the upper middle class segment)). Tesla Model S's new registrations (same trend for the last 3 months) were just 15 vehicles, an 81.7% drop over last year. The Lotus Emeya only saw 4 new registrations, the Nio ET7 registered 7 new vehicles.

One aspect that I should mention, is the fact that large bulk of these registrations are driven by company car purchases/registrations, typically around the 85% mark (in Lucid's case it stands this month at 99%). This is what is driving new registrations/sales in this vehicle segment in Germany despite changes to the way these vehicles are funded in Germany this year.

https://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Presse...te/2024/pm42_2024_nr1_seg_11_24_komplett.html