[opinion] - hmmm…VW/Audi/Porsche may be in trouble…

[Vercingetorix]

https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a46594739/2024-lucid-air-sapphire-lightning-lap-2024/

The Sapphire shattered the Lightning Lap EV record by nearly 11 seconds and became the fastest four-door, edging out the Porsche Panamera Turbo S by 3.5 seconds. What about the Tesla Model S Plaid? We've yet to test one with the Track package, but a pro driver ran a 2:50.7 in a Plaid at one of our track days. Nothing quicker can seat five adults in comfort, and only one even has a back seat at all. Everything faster, with the exception of the 2021 Porsche 911 Turbo S, wore track-ready R-compound tires. On the all-time leaderboard, the Air Sapphire nestles in between the 2016 Dodge Viper ACR and the 2020 Ford Mustang Shelby GT500. Wow!

Vir is not the Nurburgring. And it’s not stock.
“Sure, the Sapphire gets a typical comprehensive suspension overhaul, with substantially stiffer springs, bushings, and rear anti-roll bar, as well as additional negative camber front and rear.”

 

[daveo4EV]

Vir is not the Nurburgring. And it’s not stock.
“Sure, the Sapphire gets a typical comprehensive suspension overhaul, with substantially stiffer springs, bushings, and rear anti-roll bar, as well as additional negative camber front and rear.”

that is stock for the Saphire…the Saphire is to a Lucid Air what a Taycan GT is to Taycan 4S

https://lucidmotors.com/air-sapphire

 

[Vercingetorix]

that is stock for the Saphire…

I still want to know why Lucid has not run a lap at the Nurburgring.

 

[daveo4EV]

none of the EV's sold in China have run a ring time either - so far that's worked out well for Porsche…clearly that's a purchasing criteria for a majority of EV customers…

 

[Tooney]

I still want to know why Lucid has not run a lap at the Nurburgring.

I feel so stupid. Bought a Taycan and was totally unaware whether it had or had not run a lap at a place I do not know how to pronounce.

 

[D00notD00d]

The next 5 years will be unsettled.

I don’t know profit by model, but by volume, Porsche SUVs are their biggest sellers. A well used line is that tweaked and rebadged VWs/Audis sustain the Porsche brand. Resistance to the Macan and Cayenne transition to EV and residual prospects for those new models will likely affect sales., as it has for Taycan.

In 2023 North America and China were Porsche’s largest markets. Import tariffs there could affect sales.
The growth of Chinese brands is already affecting Porsche sales there.

My view is that government legislation compelling Full EVs will probably adjust in line with customer demand and will pivot towards towards plug in hybrids with increased range. Once their range exceeds 100 miles the case for full electrics weakens. But the rub then is price difference of plug in hybrids compared with mild hybrids. We’ve been looking at a plug in VW Golf with a headline range of 88 miles, enough for my wife’s local journeys. But the payback period (from fuel savings) for the extra cost compared with the mild hybrid version is 10 years!


https://www.best-selling-cars.com/b...che-worldwide-car-sales-by-model-and-country/

 

[Tooney]

Oliver Blume, Chairman of the Executive Board of Porsche AG, discusses the largest model offensive in company history, the flexible powertrain strategy, and prospects for the coming year. Dec. 10, 2024
Oliver Blume: “We have some exciting developments ahead of us.”

 

[Scandinavian]

The next 5 years will be unsettled.

I don’t know profit by model, but by volume, Porsche SUVs are their biggest sellers. A well used line is that tweaked and rebadged VWs/Audis sustain the Porsche brand. Resistance to the Macan and Cayenne transition to EV and residual prospects for those new models will likely affect sales., as it has for Taycan.

In 2023 North America and China were Porsche’s largest markets. Import tariffs there could affect sales.
The growth of Chinese brands is already affecting Porsche sales there.

Looking at the figures by model, Porsche certainly have a huge challenge to get the sales going for the new Macan. Worldwide nearly the same volume as the Cayenne in 2023.

I do not know how the situation in other markets look like. But for me here I was told in mid year that it would be impossible to get any Macan in 2024! ALL SOLD OUT! Was the message when I was in the market to look for one.

Situation today is that there are about 50 units on the forecourt unsold. Some of theM is no surprise since the are in very special colours, but externally and also internally, but still.

 

[f1eng]

very special colours, but externally and also internally,

Those are the interesting ones

 

[D00notD00d]

Oliver Blume, Chairman of the Executive Board of Porsche AG, discusses the largest model offensive in company history, the flexible powertrain strategy, and prospects for the coming year. Dec. 10, 2024
Oliver Blume: “We have some exciting developments ahead of us.”

His comments about China are at odds with the sales numbers there for other manufacturers.
Perhaps Porsche suffered from having only one high end BEV.

https://newautomotive.substack.com/...es-stall?utm_campaign=post&triedRedirect=true

 

[whitex]

the air not so much - Lucid air Saphire…is the benchmark - the Gravity is a Saphire drive train and dynamics (i.e. very very good and best Ev drive train in a production vehicle today) - and the volume/cargo/passenger capacity of a chevy suburban…and I need to replcae my Cayenne turboS eHybrid in 2027…

Do you ever wish you had gotten the Gravity instead of the Macan EV? Pure curiosity. I almost got the Saphire instead of my Taycan Turbo CT. Not regretting it, as Taycan was my first choice (I just couldn't get an allocation, and wouldn't have gotten one had I not cold called almost every Porsche dealer in the US, still took 20 months to get one), I still very much enjoy my Taycan (maybe I wish it had active ride from the J1.2), but sometimes I wonder what it would have been like if I didn't find that elusive Taycan allocation before my Saphire order was locked-in.

 

[daveo4EV]

Do you ever wish you had gotten the Gravity instead of the Macan EV? Pure curiosity. I almost got the Saphire instead of my Taycan Turbo CT. Not regretting it, as Taycan was my first choice (I just couldn't get an allocation, and wouldn't have gotten one had I not cold called almost every Porsche dealer in the US, still took 20 months to get one), I still very much enjoy my Taycan (maybe I wish it had active ride from the J1.2), but sometimes I wonder what it would have been like if I didn't find that elusive Taycan allocation before my Saphire order was locked-in.

no not for the Macan's purpose/timing - _IF_ I pursue a Gravity (which isn't really out yet but close) it will be to replace the 2021 Cayenne TurboS eHybrid in 2026/2027 around the time the Cayenne's CPO runs out…(CPO runs out in April of 2027 - so purchasing time frame is Sept. of 2026 to end of year 2027)

also I am simply _NOT_ nurse maiding the Gravity into the market like I've done with: Model S, Model X, Model 3, Taycan, Macan…no I have time - I don't need to buy a car - and I'm hoping by April of 2027 a few things will be true:

• Porsche's entry/possible purchase will be available to evaluate - along with pricing
• we'll be past the initial quality problem mechanically of something like the Gravity
• we'll be past the initial quality problems with the software
• NACS + supercharger access will be sorted and established fact
• Lucid's future/success/stability will be more clear
• Lucid's ablity to support their products will be more clear
• there should be some more incremental improvements to round off some of the rough edges in a MY'2027/2028 vehicle…vs. a 2025 introduction Gravity
• BMW is a strong contender for the Cayenne replacement - they seem to be "almost" as good as Porsche with less gouging on price…
  • and slightly less "anti-EV" vs. Porsche
• I will not purchase a Gravity (if I go that way) it will be a lease, to leave someone else holding the bag incase Lucid devolves into the abyss during my ownership period…
  • I despise leases for personal reasons, but with something like a Lucid Gravity it makes 100% sense…
• there should also be more choice in this market segment - that is my hope…

the criteria of my SUV purchase is:

• Upscale luxury product
• comfortable upscale interior with bells/whistles
• room for 4 adults + luggage for a Napa weekend
• excellent driving dynamics - not necessarily track worthy but close
• worthy acceleration
• excellence in EV technology
• no more mediocre software
• OTA updates to minimized dealer/service visits
• viable for service in my home region, but not expecting to need it a lot based on actual customer experience that precedes mine…
• NACS native port w/Supercharger access as an established fact
• acceptable to excellent range (at least 300+ miles _real_ range)
• excellent fast charging curve
• design/styling that appeals to me (BMW iX for example failed this test, a few others above, but mostly the styling)
• a company that appears to be less clueless about EV's
• phone as a key
• an excellent app for normal/expected remote vehicle access

we always bought the Cayenne "under duress" - we didn't want another ICE - but there were no full BEV's that were an upscale 4 adult SUV with bigger cargo room - so we bought the Cayenne with the goal of driving it until warranty runs out and pop-up our heads and find a suitable BEV SUV to replace…so far that's looks pretty good…

if our little plan had panned out 2025 would be the purchase window for it's replacement (4 year factory warranty, 50k miles - we're at 38k miles and less than 5 months from 4 years) - the Cayenne had such terrible software problems that we were going to initially Lemon it (we had Porsche nailed for a lemon law claim based on documented evidence). But they made a large number of considerations/accommodations in exchange for us not lemoning vehicle - one of which was a full 6 year CPO factory warranty - the pushes out the Cayenne's replacment date to sometime after Sept. of 2026…to no later than mid 2028…that the window of time my next luxury BEV SUV vendors gets my business…if we only had the Porsche factory warranty I'd have to be more serious about the Gravity starting almost now, fortunately I can afford to wait and see how it plays out…before I need to consider being a customer/victim.

until about a year ago I was assuming the ICE Cayenne would be replaced by BEV Cayenne - but with what has been happening with Porsche lately, as you can tell I'm starting to question if Porsche can be my vendor…

I'm not suggesting Lucid/Gravity is a "threat" to Porsche - but what was a slam dunk a year ago (Porsche gets my money for hte Cayenne replacement) is trending towards "another vendor" - but which vendor is still up in the air - Gravity is in the running, but not yet a done deal for me personally, but they have impressed, and that's a surprise to me - because the Lucid Air (pre-saphire) was not an impressive car to me (other than the pure engineering - but not the design so much)

however Lucid's fanatical EV engineering focus is drawing me in - it's a passion I don't see from Porsche for EV's…

I own all Porsche's - have owned all Porsche's - and would like to continue - but I'm not going to buy a product from a company that doesn't really want to be making the product I'm buying - Lucid/Rivian/Tesla/Polestar are making EV's because they want to make EV's - Porsche is making EV's because they are forced to make EV's - and it shows in the product design, focus, and core engineering…

Strong belief's, loosely held.

for me personally if Porsche continues to gouge their customer base - I'm not paying $200k+ plus for my Cayenne replacement if something like the Gravity can be had for $150k or less…so far the trend with Porsche is that they will not be my vendor for the next purchase…we'll see.

 

[feye]

given Porsche's recent facination with pricing themselves out of competition and their general lack of enthusiasm for things EV…

if they continue down this path - they may end up where they started - with only 911's as an offering…

A Cayenne EV at more than $150k (probably a lot more based on what I'm seeing with Taycan pricing) from a company that seems to wish for the past rather than embrace the future…hmmm…

going to be interesting the next 5+ years…

Is the quality better now? Last time you said...

The lack of EV enthusiasm is temporary.

1. People are scared of unproven expensive batteries.

This is not an issue anymore. The price is now down to $80/kWh and $60 for LFP and will drop to 20 in the long run. This are ready pack prices, not cell prices! Even a failed battery without warrenty is not an issue anymore.

2. People just don't want to pay insane prices for EVs when ICE is much cheaper.

This is also not an issue anymore, since this year in China the majority of EV models are cheaper than comparable ICE models. Running them is also much cheaper!

3. People are worried where to charge.

But that's also not a problem anymore, with charging stations popping up everywhere. For many many people it will be much more convenient to drive an EV than driving an ICE. In Germany and China, that's the case already.

 

[whitex]

This is not an issue anymore. The price is now down to $80/kWh and $60 for LFP and will drop to 20 in the long run. This are ready pack prices, not cell prices!

Do you have any credible source for these numbers? Any details as to what packs those are? I see a potential arbitrage opportunity if I could really get completed automotive packs at those prices.

 

[feye]

Car manufacturing is not the same as a cell phone manufacturing, or software. It's a low margin, pennies business at best. It thrives in the good times and goes bankrupt in the bad times.

That's why I don't buy from start ups. Too risky. Look at all the Fisker owners...

Think about it, there is a revolution in the energy market with storage batteries becoming so dirt cheap! China is already peak carbon, and lowering its oil import bill every month.

How long do you think the saudis can afford to subsidises this brand when the petro dollars are drying up much faster than their wells?