[opinion] - hmmm…VW/Audi/Porsche may be in trouble…

[daveo4EV]

It's not just the "smartphone on wheels" features that the legacy auto makers like Porsche are falling back on, it's other things too:
https://www.carscoops.com/2025/01/s...an-for-title-of-euro-ncaps-safest-ev-in-2024/
Glimmer of hope for German automakers, even though the Chinese manufacturers beat out Porsche on safety, the overall safest car was a German manufacturer - Mercedes.

PS> Read an interesting theory on why traditional automakers are falling behind, fast:
https://insideevs.com/news/747430/toyota-kaizen-china-ev-cm/

thanks for the article

 

[daveo4EV]

this video is only part of the mountain that must be climbed…but it's a major reason Porsche (and others) don't have meaningful OTA updates…

this is nothing I've not known/speculated/heard-of - but this is so direct from an actual automotive CEO - they are sooooo screwed…no wonder VW paying billions for Rivian software - clear IP ownership and a complete system…not 150 different vendors.

NOTE: we've known since the 50's and 60's this is how _NOT_ to do complete integrated systems…unless you want them to be rigid/fragile and very very difficult to iterate.

Now this is Ford - but the entire industry is structured this way…embedded the cost in the supply chain, and then drive the cost "out of" the supply chain - leads to cheap components that can not be easily changed/updated/substituted - both costs and responsibilities are "out sourced" - which is good for manufacturing costs but not so good for vertical integration and single ownership/responsibility - no wonder the automotive industry takes years to do things that should take weeks/months.

 

[Tooney]

Volkswagen Is Closing Factories. China's EV Makers Want Them
Chinese automakers looking to bypass tariffs and make a powerful statement could go after Germany's idled car factories.

• Volkswagen is trying to figure out how to best use its idled plants after 2027
• Chinese OEMs have their eyes on at least two soon-to-be-idled VW factories
• China's presence in Germany could prove to be a huge political power play for an entry into the European market.

 

[daveo4EV]

Volkswagen Is Closing Factories. China's EV Makers Want Them
Chinese automakers looking to bypass tariffs and make a powerful statement could go after Germany's idled car factories.

• Volkswagen is trying to figure out how to best use its idled plants after 2027
• Chinese OEMs have their eyes on at least two soon-to-be-idled VW factories
• China's presence in Germany could prove to be a huge political power play for an entry into the European market.

so China can make EV's in Germany, actually VW factories, but VW can't pull it off - OMG these people are screwed.

 

[Fish Fingers]

so China can make EV's in Germany, actually VW factories, but VW can't pull it off - OMG these people are screwed.

I wonder if the Chinese will be having the same high employment costs that VW had, if they take over a VW German plant with German workers?

Or had VW unions screwed the company into the ground over the decades and a new overseas employer will not have the same burden?

Just interested, as it may be a precedent.

 

[whitex]

so China can make EV's in Germany, actually VW factories, but VW can't pull it off - OMG these people are screwed.

If by people you mean factory workers, perhaps to them it's just a change of management.

 

[whitex]

I wonder if the Chinese will be having the same high employment costs that VW had, if they take over a VW German plant with German workers?

Or they will fill a portion of the production with robots, probably including some humanoid robots to work along side of humans. That could dilute the human labor costs. New company will not have a union contract preventing automation at the start.

 

[chun]

If by people you mean factory workers, perhaps to them it's just a change of management.

He means VW executives / VW as a company

 

[chun]

Or they will fill a portion of the production with robots, probably including some humanoid robots to work along side of humans. That could dilute the human labor costs. New company will not have a union contract preventing automation at the start.

They don’t automate much in china, from what I’ve seen when visiting.

what they will do is bring workforce from china and buy living space for them.

they did that when hired to build highways in east Europe, South Africa, and other countries. Seems to be how they operate.

of course, some countries might deny them on the pretext that they need to prove they can’t hire local workforce, but that “proof” is easily achievable: nobody is taking the job paid 2/3 of what VW pays, therefore we need imported workforce.

 

[whitex]

He means VW executives / VW as a company

Eh, Tesla bought a Toyota factory in Fremont California where they still produce cars today It doesn't mean Toyota was screwed.

 

[whitex]

They don’t automate much in china, from what I’ve seen when visiting.

what they will do is bring workforce from china and buy living space for them.

they did that when hired to build highways in east Europe, South Africa, and other countries. Seems to be how they operate.

of course, some countries might deny them on the pretext that they need to prove they can’t hire local workforce, but that “proof” is easily achievable: nobody is taking the job paid 2/3 of what VW pays, therefore we need imported workforce.

That's is changing quick, especially with new factories. They are pushing heavy on robotics and AI. Even Chinese workers are worried. It's not just the noodle bot they are competing against. Today's robots cab be humanoid and work along sides of humans. The robots may be slower, and require occasional human intervention, but they are cheaper for the output they produce, and they can be replaced by humans if things go wrong. There is a reason why unions in the west fight hard to put in anti-automation provisions in their contracts. Heck, even the creative types, like the Hollywood writers, or actors unions, are fighting for anti-AI, anti-automation clauses in their contracts.

 

[Tooney]

Porsche warns of volume decline in 2025 amid supply chain woes and China weakness
Porsche’s preliminary guidance for 2025 indicates that sales volumes are likely to decline compared to 2024.
This is due to the discontinuation of internal combustion engine versions of the Macan and 718 in Europe, weaker demand in China, and supply chain constraints affecting the 911 series.

Porsche dampens expectations for 2025 - decline in sales possible
Frank Biller, automotive analyst at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, told the Reuters news agency on Wednesday that Porsche had predicted that it would at best be able to maintain the sales level of 2024 this year or that there would even be a decline. "The hope was that things would go up in 2025 with the new model portfolio." Porsche is expecting a challenging market and a decline in sales, according to an analysis by Bernstein Research.

The DAX-listed company held an internal conference with analysts on Tuesday evening. With such pre-close calls, listed companies bring the financial market up to date before publishing their balance sheet, but present neither results nor an outlook. In response to analysts' reports, Porsche shares fell by more than two percent on Wednesday, making them the biggest loser on the DAX.

Porsche had stated that it preferred to protect its profit margin in the highly competitive Chinese market rather than increase sales figures, Biller added. Last year, the sports car manufacturer's sales in China slumped by 28 percent because affluent customers were reluctant to make luxury purchases and competition from Chinese carmakers was growing. Deliveries by the Volkswagen subsidiary worldwide shrank by three percent to just under 311,000 vehicles in 2024.

"Porsche is working to reduce its footprint in China," wrote Bernstein analyst Stephen Reitman after the call with almost 200 participants. According to him, there was no all-clear on the cost side, with expenditure on research and development remaining high. "Lower sales and the cost trend suggest unfavorable coverage of fixed costs," explained Reitman.

 

[whitex]

In other words Chinese cars have caught up (or perhaps overtook) Porsche offerings, and customers are not willing to spend a large premium just for a badge. Porsche's costs are likely higher, plus they insist of preserving their profit margins, so it will be hard for them to compete. Porsche reducing the their footprint in China probably means concentrate on the most expensive, highest profit margin cars only (to offset fixed costs with a lower sales volume).

 

[Tooney]

Porsche leadership changes

 

[Tooney]

Two other related threads, for reference:
A simple reason why Porsche is in serious long-term trouble

Sign of the EV Times - Porsche Job Cuts