FT article: Solid State batteries to arrive earlier

[Fish Fingers]

There was a very intersting article in the FT suggesting that by 2030, 10% of EVs will already be using solid state batteries.
That timescale suggests things are about to start to change very soon.

https://www.ft.com/content/dcfaeb86-0de1-4d94-a98d-e02dfde95c81

It looks like some major breakthroughs have definitely been made recently.

 

[simcity]

Be good alright, but a way to go yet. They haven’t reached anywhere near commercial production, so the 10% by 2030 is a pretty bold finger in the air.

 

[Alfa]

Solid State Batteries are like Nuklear Fusion or Quantum Computers. Several advancements have been made but don’t forget that bringing a prototype to mass market production will consume 80% of the total time. And by than we don’t really have enough data for the reliability of the mass produced cells. I start believing it when laptops and phones (with shorter lifetime) start using them.

 

[daveo4EV]

Solid State Batteries are like Nuklear Fusion or Quantum Computers. Several advancements have been made but don’t forget that bringing a prototype to mass market production will consume 80% of the total time. And by than we don’t really have enough data for the reliability of the mass produced cells. I start believing it when laptops and phones (with shorter lifetime) start using them.

+1 for this - car's and heavy duty applications will be last to the party - tools, phones, laptops, tablets and such will be first to the party here - there is less at stake cost wise to manufacturers for these devices (no 8 year/100,000 mile warranty on your iPhone)…

once we start seeing solid state batteries in appliances you can start to speculate on when it will show up in the automotive supply chain - also valuable usage data and longevity and durability data will be gleaned from the smaller devices usage…

like others on this thread - I'll believe it when I see it in at least one production application - until then they are just filling column inches with vague speculation of what might happen if something else happens just the way it's supposed to…

 

[daveo4EV]

There was a very intersting article in the FT suggesting that by 2030, 10% of EVs will already be using solid state batteries.
That timescale suggests things are about to start to change very soon.

https://www.ft.com/content/dcfaeb86-0de1-4d94-a98d-e02dfde95c81

It looks like some major breakthroughs have definitely been made recently.

automotive design cycles are 6-7 years - if this were to be in a MY'2030 vehicle - that would required this technology be "settled" and production scale ready by mid-2024 at the latest (this year would be more typical)

the 2030 number is BS unless there is a secret solidstate battery factory churning out solid state battery cells that we know nothing about up and running by April 2024…

the more I think about it the more BS it is…

 

[Avantgarde]

If it really happens by 2030...i was thkinging, won't there be an opportunity to retrofit first gen Taycans with the new solid state batteries, just when the original batteries are approaching their lifecycle? Nobody seems to be talking about this but don't you think this could be a BIG business down the line (not just for Taycans but all EVs). I can see tuners jumping into this space. Battery is a very modular piece of av EV, not at all complicated to replace it, and the motors only care about receiving the electrons they need whether they come from an old battery or new tech battery, so you barely need to change anything else in the car (except maybe some software modification). And imagine, just imagine, they put a 250kwh solid state battery into the shape of the original Taycan battery pack and it weights half as much the original one, saving you 300 kgs of dead weight.... how much you'd be willing to pay for it? I can see myself paying $30K, $40K or more....

 

[RAHRCR]

On a Porsche, a significant change in weight would necessitate a change in suspension tuning…..this would become a rabbit hole quickly.

 

[daveo4EV]

If it really happens by 2030...i was thkinging, won't there be an opportunity to retrofit first gen Taycans with the new solid state batteries, just when the original batteries are approaching their lifecycle? Nobody seems to be talking about this but don't you think this could be a BIG business down the line (not just for Taycans but all EVs). I can see tuners jumping into this space. Battery is a very modular piece of av EV, not at all complicated to replace it, and the motors only care about receiving the electrons they need whether they come from an old battery or new tech battery, so you barely need to change anything else in the car (except maybe some software modification). And imagine, just imagine, they put a 250kwh solid state battery into the shape of the original Taycan battery pack and it weights half as much the original one, saving you 300 kgs of dead weight.... how much you'd be willing to pay for it? I can see myself paying $30K, $40K or more....

"just a matter of software" is the warning sign in this thinking

EV's are highly integrated digital software affairs - even though mechanically the battery is "modular" the fact of the matter is there is much software involved in knowing the batteries capabilities and any weight change and distribution of weight would involve additional mechanical adjustments…

I do not forsee this being feasible for an entity other than the original manufacturer with access to their full software stack…this is much more than hacking a few parameters in an ECU…

I seriously doubt this will ever happen - with out the original vendors invovled.

 

[mjw930]

On a Porsche, a significant change in weight would necessitate a change in suspension tuning…..this would become a rabbit hole quickly.

True but if you checked the box for the performance package and have air suspension they just reflash the firmware to match the new battery weight. Or, they add ballast to the battery pack to mirror the old weight. Either way it’s an interesting thought exercise. The potential is to extend the life of a 2023 Taycan well into the 2030’s and beyond. Of course there are other things to consider like suspension bushings, shock duty cycles, etc but certainly not out of the realm of reality.

 

[Avantgarde]

On a Porsche, a significant change in weight would necessitate a change in suspension tuning…..this would become a rabbit hole quickly.

There is already a ~350-400kg difference between a turbo S CT and a base rwd with PB only and suspension components seems to be pretty much the same except the GTS (I may be wrong but seemingly the case). But set that aside, at a minimum, even if you can go from PB+ set up to PB eliminating ~100kg of weight from larger battery variants that is material improvement while remaining within the OEM suspension set-up...

 

[Avantgarde]

"just a matter of software" is the warning sign in this thinking

EV's are highly integrated digital software affairs - even though mechanically the battery is "modular" the fact of the matter is there is much software involved in knowing the batteries capabilities and any weight change and distribution of weight would involve additional mechanical adjustments…

I do not forsee this being feasible for an entity other than the original manufacturer with access to their full software stack…this is much more than hacking a few parameters in an ECU…

I seriously doubt this will ever happen - with out the original vendors invovled.

The reason I said "just the a matter of software" is because the software needs to be optimized only once by a number of ex-OEM software engineers, and that exercise is repeatable (copy-pasted) for thousands of applications (as opposed to -say- modifying the crank-shaft of an ICE, which is hard labor every single time it is done)... That's is why ECU tuning for ICEs are so much more scalable and those businesses are like mushrooms. I am not an expert but with EVs most of the complicated software aspects seems to be related to battery management, (thermal in particular). The solid state tech seems to be much more promising in terms of thermal flexibility, so it is possible the amount of battery management needed could be way less, when the time comes... Anyways, these are some wild projections, but given the low friction and low degradation of all other components in EV set up, i do think low mileage taycan platforms with excellent chassis and build quality would represent too much of a value to throw away just because of battery degregation/obsolescence, and there could be strong business case here ...

 

[Alfa]

The software is the biggest issue: mainly because it’s probably not well documented, maybe Porsche does not even own it and whoever does wants to keep it proprietary. It’s also not like you can easily reverse engineer it.

BTW my $0.02 of this entire Solid State Battery hype recently if they need to raise more money and not because they are actually having a “solid” plan yet.

 

[porsche_coyote]

"just a matter of software" is the warning sign in this thinking

EV's are highly integrated digital software affairs - even though mechanically the battery is "modular" the fact of the matter is there is much software involved in knowing the batteries capabilities and any weight change and distribution of weight would involve additional mechanical adjustments…

I do not forsee this being feasible for an entity other than the original manufacturer with access to their full software stack…this is much more than hacking a few parameters in an ECU…

I seriously doubt this will ever happen - with out the original vendors invovled.

Agreed.

In general, automakers have done a very bad job with software, and have tended to shy away from opening up work on older cars absent some major safety issue where government regulators get involved.

The one thing that gives me hope is Porsche's overall track record with respect to keeping older cars on the road with parts support. But software is very different from hardware, and everything they've done well so far has been in the hardware world...