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[opinion] - hmmm…VW/Audi/Porsche may be in trouble…

A.Mayor

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…well that was until the new Taycan was $1200/month more lease payment than their previous Taycan…
How is that even possible? Even a $20k increase for a Turbo shouldn’t lead to an extra $1,200 per month in lease payments. What kind of math are these guys running?
 

whitex

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How is that even possible? Even a $20k increase for a Turbo shouldn’t lead to an extra $1,200 per month in lease payments. What kind of math are these guys running?
A combination of high interest rates, lower residuals, higher prices (probably in that order).

EDIT: Just for fun, I repriced my 2023 Taycan, and the price increase is over $20K, even though I couldn't even add the 19.2kW charger.
 
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A.Mayor

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True, but how many of those 49mln vehicles are Porsches or similar? How many of those are looking to replace them within the next 3 months? That would give you an approximate addressable market size. We can ignore the number of 16 year olds who just got their driver's license and can afford a new Taycan as their first car.

An even better way to look at it is how many Taycans were sold in Germany last month, then compare it to the size of the inventory.
I agree. Comparing last month’s sales — or even sales over the past three months — against the inventory size would give a clearer picture.

That said, any inventory build-up could just as easily reflect broader market dynamics, like the slowing EV sales or economic uncertainty, rather than something specific to the Taycan. It might also help to compare inventory levels of competitors like Mercedes and BMW in the same segment for better context.
 

Tooney

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Porsche-Piech family pushes for VW German plant closures, FT reports

FT link (may be paywalled): https://www.ft.com/content/c96180ff-4b23-4044-83e7-e44b8f2064a0

The billionaire Porsche-Piëch family, Volkswagen’s majority owner, has taken a hardline stance in backing the company’s plans to close several German factories, as the threat of diminished dividends looms.

Lack of progress on the restructuring, initially announced in September, has become a growing concern for the Porsche-Piëch family, which has reversed its traditional stance of avoiding confrontation with VW’s powerful works council.

According to one person briefed on discussions at recent supervisory board meetings, the family has “made clear that it is necessary to rightsize the business in order to achieve long-term competitiveness”.
. . .
Porsche SE has already taken a hit from the crisis at VW. Last week, it warned that the uncertainty at the carmaker and the absence of financial planning data could force it to write down its stake in VW by up to €20bn, or nearly 40 per cent.

The family also faces the risk of falling VW dividends, which last year stood at €1.4bn, at a time when Porsche SE is saddled with €5.1bn in debt. The holding company borrowed heavily in 2022 to buy a 25 per cent voting stake in sports car maker Porsche AG — allowing the family to regain direct control over the company founded by its forebears.

“The plan was to finance the interest payments and to deleverage with the dividends from Porsche and VW,” said Stifel analyst Daniel Schwarz. “That’s clearly at risk now,” he added, explaining that the family’s wealthiest members “have most of their wealth invested in this one company”.
 
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daveo4EV

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Porsche-Piech family pushes for VW German plant closures, FT reports

FT link (may be paywalled): https://www.ft.com/content/c96180ff-4b23-4044-83e7-e44b8f2064a0

The billionaire Porsche-Piëch family, Volkswagen’s majority owner, has taken a hardline stance in backing the company’s plans to close several German factories, as the threat of diminished dividends looms.

Lack of progress on the restructuring, initially announced in September, has become a growing concern for the Porsche-Piëch family, which has reversed its traditional stance of avoiding confrontation with VW’s powerful works council.

According to one person briefed on discussions at recent supervisory board meetings, the family has “made clear that it is necessary to rightsize the business in order to achieve long-term competitiveness”.
. . .
Porsche SE has already taken a hit from the crisis at VW. Last week, it warned that the uncertainty at the carmaker and the absence of financial planning data could force it to write down its stake in VW by up to €20bn, or nearly 40 per cent.

The family also faces the risk of falling VW dividends, which last year stood at €1.4bn, at a time when Porsche SE is saddled with €5.1bn in debt. The holding company borrowed heavily in 2022 to buy a 25 per cent voting stake in sports car maker Porsche AG — allowing the family to regain direct control over the company founded by its forebears.

“The plan was to finance the interest payments and to deleverage with the dividends from Porsche and VW,” said Stifel analyst Daniel Schwarz. “That’s clearly at risk now,” he added, explaining that the family’s wealthiest members “have most of their wealth invested in this one company”.
:facepalm:
 

Der-Schwabe

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I agree. Comparing last month’s sales — or even sales over the past three months — against the inventory size would give a clearer picture.

That said, any inventory build-up could just as easily reflect broader market dynamics, like the slowing EV sales or economic uncertainty, rather than something specific to the Taycan. It might also help to compare inventory levels of competitors like Mercedes and BMW in the same segment for better context.
I have said it already recently on this forum, the Taycan sales have been strong in Germany over the last 3 months based on the KBA (= DMV) figures, twice being best selling vehicle in it's segment (upper class luxury segment (that includes ICEs)) and again at in November with 489 newly registered vehicles which represents a 29% increase over 2023. I don't think these are sitting on dealer forecourts either as 85% (on average) in this segment are company purchases. For comparison, the Lucid Air registered 116 newly registered vehicles and, guess what, 99.1% of these were company car purchases. The Lotus Emeya registered a mere 4 newly registered vehicles, 100% of these were company cars.

Many arguments are made on price point, so one would have to then explain away why the less expensive Tesla Model S only sold 15 newly registered vehicles in Germany, an 81.7% drop in new registrations. Some may argue that the Model S is 'long in the tooth'. Yet, the same applies to the recently facelifted Tesla Model 3 that costs even less which registered only 419 new registrations in November in Germany, a 78.5% drop in new registrations.

KBA top segment sellers
 
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A.Mayor

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I have said it already recently on this forum, the Taycan sales have been strong in Germany over the last 3 months based on the KBA (= DMV) figures, twice being best selling vehicle in it's segment (upper class luxury segment (that includes ICEs)) and again at in November with 489 newly registered vehicles which represents a 29% increase over 2023. I don't think these are sitting on dealer forecourts either as 85% (on average) in this segment are company purchases. For comparison, the Lucid Air registered 116 newly registered vehicles and, guess what, 99.1% of these were company car purchases. The Lotus Emeya registered a mere 4 newly registered vehicles, 100% of these were company cars.

Many arguments are made on price point, so one would have to then explain away why the less expensive Tesla Model S only sold 15 newly registered vehicles in Germany, an 81.7% drop in new registrations. Some may argue that the Model S is 'long in the tooth'. Yet, the same applies to the recently facelifted Tesla Model 3 that costs even less which registered only 419 new registrations in November in Germany, a 78.5% drop in new registrations.

KBA top segment sellers
Thanks for bringing some figures and context to the table.
 

Scandinavian

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I have said it already recently on this forum, the Taycan sales have been strong in Germany over the last 3 months based on the KBA (= DMV) figures, twice being best selling vehicle in it's segment (upper class luxury segment (that includes ICEs)) and again at in November with 489 newly registered vehicles which represents a 29% increase over 2023. I don't think these are sitting on dealer forecourts either as 85% (on average) in this segment are company purchases. For comparison, the Lucid Air registered 116 newly registered vehicles and, guess what, 99.1% of these were company car purchases. The Lotus Emeya registered a mere 4 newly registered vehicles, 100% of these were company cars.

Many arguments are made on price point, so one would have to then explain away why the less expensive Tesla Model S only sold 15 newly registered vehicles in Germany, an 81.7% drop in new registrations. Some may argue that the Model S is 'long in the tooth'. Yet, the same applies to the recently facelifted Tesla Model 3 that costs even less which registered only 419 new registrations in November in Germany, a 78.5% drop in new registrations.

KBA top segment sellers
You may be right about all these statistics and registrations.

I was just surprised at the over 300 J1 ll advertised at the German dealers. And when I phoned a few of them the cars were most likely demo models advertised and registered in November and December. And these dealers also had quite a number of new cars to sell?

Perhaps there is a lack of demands in general for EV’s in Germany now, with the challenges in the economy?
 

Der-Schwabe

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You may be right about all these statistics and registrations.

I was just surprised at the over 300 J1 ll advertised at the German dealers. And when I phoned a few of them the cars were most likely demo models advertised and registered in November and December. And these dealers also had quite a number of new cars to sell?

Perhaps there is a lack of demands in general for EV’s in Germany now, with the challenges in the economy?
Indeed. Ever since the German government discontinued subsidies (the so-called "Umwelt-Bonus") for BEVs in Germany in December 2023, earlier than expected, the market had collapsed this year in Germany for BEVs which makes the Taycan's sales remarkable against this backdrop.

" Much of the current slump can be traced back to the German government’s decision to end subsidies for electric cars at the end of 2023. At the time, Transport Minister Volker Wissing argued that the EV market should be able to stand on its own without public aid, claiming that permanent subsidies aren’t a sustainable solution. It seems, however, the market isn’t quite ready to walk unaided."

BEV sales in Germany in 2024 fall drastically
 
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daveo4EV

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loving the factual context being brought to this thread - keep it up!
 

ZenicaNC

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Refrains from posting articles about BYD's 911 killer ($40,000 MSRP).
Yes please. It's a chinese car. Let that sink in. And not just a Camry or Accord. It's a car riddled with technology, all of which likely sends data back to the totalitarian regime that all chinese companies are beholden to. It isn't $40+k organically. It's that way because the chinese did what they do best: COPY. So, skip R&D and get subsidized by the same government you are beholden to and viola! You magically produce a $40+k car.

It could be free, I wouldn't drive it.

When we visited the STEM school our kids go to, I saw this little robot they have and use in class. I looked it up, wanting to get one for them to have at home. I saw it's an AI "robotic pet" made by a chinese company. I stopped right there, nope, not going to happen. I'm not having a camera and speaker running around the house actively sending data back to china.

They (byd) may find it difficult to unload that car in the EU with the tarrifs being proposed. Of course, china protested. Ha! %$#@! 'em.
 

D00notD00d

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@ZenicaNC
I agree with your other points of principle, but I wouldn’t be bothered about any authority eavesdropping on my boring life!
Regardless of likelihood, commands affecting operation sent to the vehicle should any hostilities break out would have the biggest impact!
But any party with enough motivation, knowledge and wherewithal could do that to any connected car?
 
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whitex

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Yes please. It's a chinese car. Let that sink in. And not just a Camry or Accord. It's a car riddled with technology, all of which likely sends data back to the totalitarian regime that all chinese companies are beholden to. It isn't $40+k organically. It's that way because the chinese did what they do best: COPY. So, skip R&D and get subsidized by the same government you are beholden to and viola! You magically produce a $40+k car.

It could be free, I wouldn't drive it.

When we visited the STEM school our kids go to, I saw this little robot they have and use in class. I looked it up, wanting to get one for them to have at home. I saw it's an AI "robotic pet" made by a chinese company. I stopped right there, nope, not going to happen. I'm not having a camera and speaker running around the house actively sending data back to china.

They (byd) may find it difficult to unload that car in the EU with the tarrifs being proposed. Of course, china protested. Ha! %$#@! 'em.
Paranoia is not a bad thing to have. However, if you think those same Chinese companies have not compromised non-Chinese manufacturers, you'd be letting your guard down and having a major blind spot. Remember, US government has for a long time been fighting end-to-end encryption, insisting on tech companies to be providing back doors "for the good guys", arguing against end-to-end encryption, etc. They recently woke up realizing those same back doors have been compromised by foreign governments for a couple of year now, eavesdropping on all US phones via US government mandated back doors. Recently the US government has been issuing advisories for people not to use SMS and switch to end-to-end encrypted messaging. You'd think the people in the government who even a couple of years ago were still mandating the back doors which got compromised (not at all surprising, security experts all agreed this will happen), would have gotten fired, but of course not.

I work in cyber-security, I pretty much assume all my devices, phones, computers, cars, have back doors or hidden unpatched vulnerabilities known by 2 or 3 state actors (one of them is probably my own government), which can be used should they choose to do so. If you don't want to be spied on, you gotta get off the grid, no connected devices of any kind (including cars).

As for Chinese copying, sure, they used to, but I gotta tell you, they now have better automotive technology than most western automakers, so who are they copying from, space aliens? They have in fact advanced beyond the western tech in a few fields. Why do you think TikTok is so much more successful than youtube shorts? Better algorithms. Trump tried forcing them to sell the algorithms to US company (his buddy Larry), but Tik Tok just moves all the algorithms to China. Today, if US was to simply take over TikTok's US offices, they wouldn't get much tech from it. Chinese cars are more reliable than traditional automakers too, so who exactly did they copy that reliability tech from?
 

chun

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As for Chinese copying, sure, they used to, but I gotta tell you, they now have better automotive technology than most western automakers, so who are they copying from, space aliens? They have in fact advanced beyond the western tech in a few fields. Why do you think TikTok is so much more successful than youtube shorts? Better algorithms. Trump tried forcing them to sell the algorithms to US company (his buddy Larry), but Tik Tok just moves all the algorithms to China. Today, if US was to simply take over TikTok's US offices, they wouldn't get much tech from it. Chinese cars are more reliable than traditional automakers too, so who exactly did they copy that reliability tech from?
I never understood the argument about copying.

Why should the end-customer care who copies who? For all I care, copy whoever you want, as long as I get the best product. This is the same tribalistic childish argument that IOS/Android users keep having: :"IOS copied from android, no android copied from IOS this first" Blah blah blah

What I actually wanted to add: BYD came out with their "Active Ride" alternative before Porsche did. So who copied who? Might have something to do with BYD hiring key talent from Porsche, sure, but they still released it first.

And on the tracking / security topic, do people not know even app makers can generate exact 3d model of your space and track movements in it, simply based on wi-fi signal data, baked into any app as basic access? IOS is a tad better, because they make apps ask you: " any app that wants to interact with devices on your network must ask for permission the first time that it tries to browse your local network ". It's not even new technology:



So what, are you not gonna use any app or wifi anymore? People need to chill... You've been "compromised" long long ago.
 
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